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Each year Aswath Damodaran at NYU kindly updates the annual returns for stocks (S&P 500), bonds (10 year Treasuries) and cash (3-month T-bills) going back to 1928. I love this data because stocks, bonds and cash are the building blocks of asset allocation.1 Sure, you can add other asset classes and strategies but those three are where most investors should start when it comes to figuring out your portfolio mix.
Bitcoin is a middling technology that, 15 years after its introduction to the world, still does not have a single legitimate use case in the developed world where it’s the best possible solution to a problem. It’s worse than our traditional stores of value (gold, US dollar) because of its inherent volatility (roughly 5x more volatile than the stock market).
It may surprise you to learn that during this cycle of falling inflation, there seems to be little correlation with rising Fed Rates. This is very counter-intuitive but it makes sense when you consider what an aberrational and unusual cycle this has been. Despite zero rates for a decade plus inflation was quite benign. it was only the combination of the global pandemic and lockdown, a massive fiscal stimulus, and a surge in demand for goods that have driven the 2020 to 2022 inflation.
I wrote last week that I have started coding again. And I have been amazed at how much easier it is now that I can code and deploy in the cloud without having to spin up anything myself. But the other massive improvement in programming is the “AI assist.” I am working in a Javascript library called jQuery and I don’t really understand its commands and syntax very well.
Automated tools can improve your financial writing. Proofreading. Some of my favorite tools are Speak, PerfectIt, and Grammarly, as I’ve discussed in “ My three main software tools for proofreading.” They help me with proofreading. I’ve gone into more detail on one of these tools in “ How I use Grammarly to improve my writing.”. If your organization uses Associated Press style, you may like AP StyleGuard, which I discuss in “ AP StyleGuard: the answer to your proofreading prayers?
It’s not difficult to find a bearish perspective during a bear market. The bad stuff gets amplified and feels much worse when investors are losing money. Although stocks have rallied this year we’re still well below the highs and remain in an economic environment that is increasingly hard to handicap. Nassim Taleb has never been shy about voicing his bearish prognostications.
Hung with my friends Haley Sacks (Mrs. Dow Jones), Pat McAuliffe (Barstool Sports) and Gabe Walker (PRE.VEYOR) at the Knicks game this week. That’s after doing Closing Bell from the NYSE and then a quick slice at Joe’s Pizza (“Famous Since 1975). A very New York night, really reminded me of what I love so much about this town, despite its flaws and annoyances.
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Hung with my friends Haley Sacks (Mrs. Dow Jones), Pat McAuliffe (Barstool Sports) and Gabe Walker (PRE.VEYOR) at the Knicks game this week. That’s after doing Closing Bell from the NYSE and then a quick slice at Joe’s Pizza (“Famous Since 1975). A very New York night, really reminded me of what I love so much about this town, despite its flaws and annoyances.
Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and all the rest of the seasonal glad tidings for you and yours in 2023. Before we roll up our sleeves and start to engage in the serious business of managing risk in the capital markets, I wanted to share a story that is more in keeping with the spirits of the season. I ran track in high school. My father’s advice when I joined the team was: Find the fastest guy on the team and keep up with him.
I’ve never done a cleanse. But many of my friends and family members have done them. There are various flavors of cleanses but the basic idea is you cut back your consumption of food and drink and replace it with mostly liquid nutrition for anywhere from a day to a month. I believe the most common lengths are in and around one week. As I understand it, the theory behind the cleanse is it helps your body eliminate all sorts of toxins that build up over time from a poor diet and other unheal
A reader asks: Is it crazy to be 100% in stocks from age 32 to sometime in my 50s for my retirement accounts? And another reader asks a similar question: I don’t get why people work a 30+ year career while investing in stocks only to glide path into a heavier bond allocation around retirement. Why not just stay 100% in stocks, benefit from share price appreciation and collect dividends for life?
I had a bit of a flashback last night to the year 2000, sitting in my office after hours watching JDS Uniphase collapse on the heels of its conference call after reporting “better than expected” earnings for the quarter. Throughout 2000, techs and telecoms were still making a ton of profit, but it was becoming apparent that they were still coasting on the spend from 1999.
Welcome to 2023! Let’s jump into the new year with some fresh observations, some of which are quite surprising: • Astronomical Measures of Time Are Unrelated to Investing : 2023 – a new year! It is natural to hope the flipping of the calendar brings something new and different. But why? It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes, and 9.76 seconds to complete one orbit – to return to its exact same place in space relative to our star, the sun.
I want to focus this post on the macro environment for tech, startups, web3, and climate because that is where my head is at right now. I believe that sometime in the first half of 2023, the central banks around the world will start backing off the tightening that they have been engaged in as inflation continues to ease and the economy continues to cool.
Some people might think it’s bizarre that turning the page on the calendar should matter to investors. Why do investment professionals care about the end of a month, quarter or year? These periods do seem arbitrary but the changing of the calendar from one year to the next offers a good chance for market nerds like myself to update some long-term market data.
FUTURE PROOF FESTIVAL 2023 TICKET REGISTRATION IS NOW OPEN Join us September 10th-13th in Huntington Beach, CA! It’ll be the lowest rate you’ll ever pay to attend. Prices jump in 2 weeks. Use the link down below to register now. See you there[link] pic.twitter.com/BTO0RNivhJ — The Compound (@TheCompoundNews) January 18, 2023 Last September we threw the biggest wealth management festival (and proba.
I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. Let’s start with some numbers: Microsoft 22,000 (10%) Amazon 18,000 (1%) Google 12,000 (6.4%) Salesforce 7,000 (10%) Tesla 10,000 (10%) Twitter 3,700 (50%) Apple 0 (0%) Keep in mind a few things as you con
I read last week that the NYC Department of Education has banned ChatGPT from its networks and devices. I understand that reaction and mentioned the issues that AI/ML create for educators in a post a few weeks ago. I attended a dinner this past week with USV portfolio founders and one who works in education told us that ChatGPT has effectively ended the essay as a way for teachers to assess student progress.
We are excited to welcome Alexander Bailey to our team. He serves as our Financial Planning Associate and is currently working toward earning his CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER professional certification. He is passionate about learning the intricacies of financial planning and learning how to apply that knowledge in our clients’ financial plans to help guide them on their financial journeys.
It’s now well-documented that 2022 is one of the worst years in history for financial markets. Last year was one of the worst years ever for stocks and the worst year ever for bonds. The logical next step is to look at what has happened next following the prior worst years for stocks, bonds and diversified portfolios. Past performance tells us nothing about future performance but studying market history can provide.
If you’re a financial advisor or a fund manager and you weren’t down 20% last year, you won, basically. The S&P fell into a 20% bear market while the Nasdaq crashed almost 40%. Bonds were down double digits as an asset class. International stocks, while outperforming the US and not down as much, were still down a lot. Except for Turkey, which inexplicably doubled last year – here’s the TUR ETF, The post Think you have it bad?
Last year, we hosted the first Future Proof conference , and it was. The reviews were fabulous: Morningstar , L.A. Times , Investment News , Financial Planning , RIA Biz , Think Advisor , Business Insider ; Afterward, I told you the traditional financial conference was kaput. Attendees from all over the country (and the world!) came to discuss the most important issues surrounding advising clients.
Our vision is to inspire, educate, and prepare our clients so they can live the lives they want. With this in mind, our team members are always committed to developing their skills and education to help our clients achieve their financial goals. Tobias Financial Advisors is proud that our team members constantly strive to grow and expand their knowledge.
We have a handful of traditions in my family. We watch the Lions lose every year on Thanksgiving. We wear Hawaiian shirts at holiday dinners (try it…it’s fun). We get Chinese takeout for lunch every year on Christmas day. And we update my asset allocation quilt once a year when the calendar turns (OK that’s just me). Let’s do this.
Happy New Year everyone! Great to be back in the saddle this week, working with our new president as we prepare for 2023 and beyond. We’ve got lots of projects and initiatives underway at Ritholtz Wealth, some of which you’ll be hearing about from me very soon. This week we went back to our regularly scheduled programming, with fresh episodes of all your favorite shows – What Are Your Thoughts, Animal Sp.
For the first time since 2018, the S&P 500, along with most other major indices had a negative return for the calendar year in 2022. Financial buzzwords like inflation and interest rates appeared constantly in the media and social media, and rightfully so with the role they played. Meanwhile, conflict abroad, unfortunately, came into the spotlight with the invasion of Ukraine, sending a global shockwave that had a large impact financially.
A reader asks: I’ve heard you say quite a few times that “trees don’t grow to the sky”, and you’re usually talking a particular company or Bitcoin or maybe ARK, etc. But could the same be true for the stock market in general, i.e., does it hit a point where it simply can’t grow anymore. After all, money and dollar are scarce and limited. If everyone hypothetically invests, we can’t all become millionaires, r.
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Callie Cox, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss discuss the latest CPI data, why Michael’s feeling a little bullish, calling the Fed’s bluff, chances of a soft landing, retail investor sentiment, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
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