A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 22, 2022

A reader asks: I know no one can predict the future…yada, yada, yada, but just between us – what’s going to happen with the stock market next year? I’m not sure I can handle another year like 2022. Life would be a lot easier if I knew the answer to this question. I guess the good news is there really isn’t much connective tissue from one year to the next in terms of one year’s price action impacting the next y.

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Stock Market Stock Market 145

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 1, 2022

LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers. The audience applauded as the screen went black.

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Mish Talk

DECEMBER 11, 2022

"CZ" Image likeness courtesy of Coin Telegraph article below. Binance's Proof of Reserves Statement When we say Proof of Reserves, we are specifically referring to those assets that we hold in custody for users. This means that we are showing evidence and proof that Binance has funds that cover all of our users assets 1:1, as well as some reserves. When a user deposits one Bitcoin, Binance's reserves increase by at least one Bitcoin to ensure client funds are fully backed.

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Liabilities Assets Financing Finance 145

A VC: Musings of a VC in NYC

DECEMBER 5, 2022

The advances in AI over the last year are mind-boggling. I attended a dinner this past week with USV portfolio founders and one who works in education told us that ChatGPT has effectively ended the essay as a way for teachers to assess student progress. It will be easier for a student to prompt ChatGPT to write the essay than to write it themselves.

Education 138

Education Portfolios 138

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Source: QAD Blog. A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. It iss extremely challenging to select the right sector at the right time (and for the right reasons). Almost nobody does this well consistently over time. Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure.

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Companies Investing 124

Investment Writing

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Have you resolved to exercise more? With that in mind, I’ve updated this list of free and low-cost online exercise classes that I originally created during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. I am grateful to my writer friends who suggested these resources to me. My current exercise favorites. My go-to website for low-impact cardio exercise is Team Body Project.

Investing 119

Investing 119

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 8, 2022

Each Christmas season I do a webinar with my friends at YCharts where we take a look back at the most important charts of the year and discuss which of these trends will remain important going forward. It’s always a lot of fun and registration is free. This takes place tomorrow (Friday) December 9th at 12 noon ET (11am CT). This is a presentation for wealth management and asset management professionals, you can reg.

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Asset Management Assets 135

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).

Banks 144

Banks Accounting 144

Indigo Marketing Agency

DECEMBER 19, 2022

As a financial advisor, your job requires you to stay on top of leading industry information, the evolving ways to connect with clients, and new strategies for managing money. With so much going on, it can be challenging to keep track of everything. That’s why we’ve identified the top 41 financial influencers we believe will greatly impact the industry in 2023.

Education 116

Education Consulting Consultants Financial Services 116

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 16, 2022

There seems to be a lot of confusion going on today with respect to inflation, interest rates, and ongoing Federal Reserve policy. A framework for exploring this has many parts: What the Fed (obviously) knows, how it express those views through police like FOMC rates, ZIRP, QE, QT, etc. There remains the question of what the Fed is actually wrong about. 1 .

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Stock Market Stock Market Banks Assets 124

Investment Writing

DECEMBER 18, 2022

If you’ve ever tried to proofread the gazillionth draft of an article, you know it’s painful to reread a familiar piece. Plus, you naturally fill in missing words and correct other mistakes in your mind, not on the page. The Speak feature in Microsoft Word is helping me overcome this challenge. (Note: I initially used—and blogged about using—Adobe Acrobat for this purpose.).

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Investing 105

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 13, 2022

Unless we get a Christmas miracle, the U.S. stock market is going to finish the year with double-digit losses. If this downturn holds, it would be the 12th time in the past 95 years this has happened. So it’s relatively rare but not completely out of the range of possibilities. There’s nothing special about calendar year returns. It’s not like market cycles die on December 31st and are born again each ye.

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Stock Market Stock Market Returns 145

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 3, 2022

We’re having a live podcast taping to benefit one of our favorite charities, No Kid Hungry. It’s The Compound’s first ever Fan Appreciation Night and we’re joining forces with our friends at the On The Tape podcast to make it a great experience. Taping is December 16th at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square. We’re reviewing the year that was and looking ahead to 2023.

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Mish Talk

DECEMBER 17, 2022

Collapse In Prices Can You Take Advantage? Why Not Lower Retail Prices? Deflation is a B h Clever Lease Extension There you go. Some excellent comments from @guydealership and others. The lead chart suggests Carvana is headed for bankruptcy. Not to worry, I am sure the owners got out at the top with stock options and sales. This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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Financial Times: Moral Money

DECEMBER 6, 2022

Activist fund Bluebell Capital Partners previously targeted Richemont, Danone and Solvay

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Capital Funds 104

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 5, 2022

I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting. Using data from the Federal Reserve, FRED analyzed 5 categories: Top 0.1%, the rest of the top 1%, the rest of the top 10%, the rest of the top 50%, and the bottom half.

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Accounting 124

Financial Times M&A

DECEMBER 15, 2022

Fosun-owned fashion business climbs 36% as it seeks to turn round flagging fortunes

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A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 9, 2022

Nationwide price declines in the housing market are relatively rare. Since 1987, there have been just three times when the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index has been in a state of drawdown: The first was in the early-1990s when housing prices fell a little more than 2% nationally. Then you have the housing crash at the end of the 2000s when prices fell nearly 27%.

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The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 10, 2022

This past week we stayed at the Post Oak in Houston, one of the top ten hotels in America, supposedly 6 or 7 stars – and let me tell you, that place was opulent. More marble in one building than anywhere I’ve ever been, save for perhaps the Vatican. Billionaire hospitality guru Tilman Fertitta, the hotel’s owner, furnished this place as though he would actually live there – and he does.

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Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the eighth month. Lost in the unemployment and jobs headline noise are huge divergences between jobs and employment dating back to March. Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in

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Stock Market Stock Market Returns 131

Financial Times: Moral Money

DECEMBER 18, 2022

Collab SOS is focused on fashion materials, energy and supply chain start-ups

Venture Capital 101

Venture Capital Capital Funds 101

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? The bond market is known for being much smarter than the stock market but we don’t have to go back very far to find a time when it was wrong.

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Assets Stock Market Stock Market Capital 122

Financial Times M&A

DECEMBER 29, 2022

Chief commercial officer Luke Miels looking at targets worth up to $2.

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A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 6, 2022

Before becoming one of the most important movie studio executives of the 1970s, Robert Evans took a break from the glitz and glam of Hollywood to work for his brother’s apparel line, Evan-Picone. The company was so fashionable in the 1960s that every investment bank was pushing them to go public. Before going that route, Robert’s brother Charles put a call into Charlie Revson, the founder and owner of Revlon.

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Investment Banks Investment Banking Banks Companies 145

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 5, 2022

I’m traveling this week (Houston here I come!) so I dug this one out of the archives because it’s one of the things I believe in even more now than when I wrote it a year ago. This post came out in October of 2021 at the height of NFT mania. I never really understood it. Collecting I get. Collecting things that can be infinitely copied and that you can’t hold in your hand?

Financing 111

Financing Finance 111

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Case-Shiller home price data via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Home Price Synopsis Home prices have peaked this cycle but the decline is certainly tiny compared to the run up. Case-Shiller data lags. The latest data is from September and that represents sales primarily made in July and August so the declines shown are undoubtedly understated. Prices are falling now across the board.

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Stock Market Stock Market 128

BlueMind

DECEMBER 23, 2022

Category: Resources. Hollywood movies provide more than just entertainment. They give great insight into the human mind about crime, greed, love, or hate. Moreover, watching movies is a great way to relieve the stress of the week and pass the time, pandemic or not! Movies related to the financial world predominantly reveal the greedy and corrupt nature of specific individuals.

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Hedge Funds Due Diligence Financing Finance 98

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

In this week’s podcast, I chatted with Kathleen McCarthy , Global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. 1 We recorded this on November 30 th , before all the news broke on the BREIT liquidity gates. But I am very familiar with the product. RWM is a discretionary RIA, which primarily invests in stocks and bonds via ETFs, Mutual Funds, and Direct Indexing.

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Investors Mutual Funds Hedge Funds Venture Capital 119

Financial Times M&A

DECEMBER 29, 2022

M&A suffers record decline in second half of 2022 as interest rate rises hit financing

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Financing Finance 98

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 16, 2022

I loved the first season of The White Lotus. It was the perfect pandemic show at the perfect time, allowing us to escape to an exotic locale and enjoy the quirks of some wonderfully written characters. Season two just wrapped on HBO and I enjoyed it even more than the first one. The murder mystery aspect of the show was tremendous but my finance brain couldn’t help but notice a number of money and behavioral psycho.

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Financing Finance 143

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 6, 2022

I’m in Texas this week speaking at the Dynasty Investing Forum and seeing clients. The below was one of my best posts of the year, in my own humble opinion I wrote it at pretty much the worst moment for stocks in 2022, during the peak of the September sell-off that drove the S&P 500 to its lowest low – down about 25% on the year. Since this post, JPMorgan shares are up 26%.

Investing 107

Investing Financing Finance 107

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 8, 2022

Reserve balances, reverse repos, and interest rate paid to banks from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes Data reflects end of month numbers. The latest reserve balance is from the New York Fed. The rest of the numbers are via a St. Louis Fed download. Note the stairstep pattern on interest paid on reserves. The interest rate rises every time the Fed hike rates.

Banks 120

Banks 120

BlueMind

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Category: Productivity Tips. Financial advisors, like most people, like to make last-minute New Year’s resolution. That’s because the New Year is seen as a chance to start fresh with strategies that will spur growth in their practice. But New Year’s resolutions are often infamous for being broken. Before the end of the first quarter, many resolutions fizzle and are forgotten and life returns to what it was.

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Prospects Assets Returns 98

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

As we have been discussing since May of this year, there are increasing signs we have been groping for a bottom in the equity markets. This “Process” is not a single event but rather, a series of events the totality of which increasingly weighs the probability towards that positive resolution. I use the word probability because this outcome is not pre-ordained, but rather, subject to future events which have yet to unfold.

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Banks Accounting Investors Investing 118