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“When I see a bubble forming I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire. That is not irrational.” – George Soros, 2009 I’ve spent 25 years watching, trading and investing in the stock market. The repetition of patterns is amazing. In every generation we see new bubbles, which form when a new innovation comes along and everyone gets excited about the future.
Facebook was one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 in 2022, falling 64% on the year. Who knew pouring billions into the metaverse during a time of Fed tightening and 9% inflation would be a bad idea? Well last year’s loser has turned into their year’s darling. Facebook shares are up more than 55% in the first month and change of 2023, including a one-day jump of more than 20% this week after th.
I am always fascinated when seemingly random sources converge on the same concept. The current convergence involved some research I was doing centered on Dunning Kruger, Vanguard’s Tim Buckley, my partner Josh’s AI/ChatGPT post, and the general state of the market. It’s like a real-time version of “ The Blind Men and the Elephant ,” by John Godfrey Saxe.
And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
One of my favorite things about financial media is the profiles of individual investors in the Wall Street Journal. I don’t know how they do it but somehow the Journal gets regular people to spill their guts about thoughts on the markets or how they’re positioning their portfolios. This week’s piece on the rise and fall of amateur investors didn’t disappoint.
I get too many emails. So much so that I had to set up separate email addresses for things like subscriptions, etc. I am impressed with the overall quality of Substacks I receive; I have a few favorites that I never miss. But it hass become too easy to add another, and they all it piled up in my inbox, looking a little too much like homework. It recently got worse: I have noticed how many of my subscription emails in the inbox (see above) are now Substacks.
John Burns shared a great chart recently that shows how new homes priced below $200,000 have gone from more than 40% of the market in 2010 to 0% today: At the same time, sales of homes going for half a million dollars or more has shot up from less than 10% to nearly 40% of the new homes market. I understand why first-time homebuyers are so angry. This isn’t great for all of the millennials out there looking to buy.
I am in Florida for the big ETF Exchange event. It’s a giant annual conference with 2000+ people attending in Miami to network, talk ETF’s, and discuss the future of the industry. It’s always a worthwhile hang. (Full agenda here ) My contribution to the event is a live Masters-in-Business with the Vanguard Group’s CEO Tim Buckley. We will be recording it for broadcast next week; even if you cannot make it to Miami tomorrow, you will be able to hear what the CEO of Vanguard Grou
A reader asks: I’ve just come across your blog post from 2016, “Deconstructing 30-Year Stock Market Returns.” Thank you for that! It was just about exactly what I was looking for. I wonder if you have updated your finding since then? Also, have you run the analysis for other time periods? 10-year and 20-year rolling averages would also be interesting.
Do your marketing strategies need a second look? It’s always a good idea to get a second opinion! Whether it’s for our health, our loved ones, or our career, getting more than one perspective can help us make more informed decisions. Doing research and gathering different opinions can give us more confidence in our choices and can often lead to better results.
Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►Bear Market Rallies – Another bear market rally or a new bull market? ►AI Bubble of 2023 – ChatGPT had over 100 million users in January.
Today’s show is brought to you by ASYMmetric ETFs: We had Darren Schuringa, Founder and CEO of ASYMmetric ETFs on the show to discuss Asymetric’s latest Smart Income and Smart Alpha ETFs. On today’s show, we discuss: Darren’s background prior to ASYMmetric ETFs How ASYMmetric structures their strategies Looking at market volatility Rules-based strategies v emotions What makes Smart ETFs smart How ASYMmet.
Pam Perskie is the Founder and CEO of Seven Mile Advisory , a multi-family office that works with clients who have significant financial complexity, including business owners, private equity professionals, real estate investors and operators, professional athletes, and entertainers. Pam and I discussed how a successful multi-family office operates, the profile of clients, how her firm charges for its services, the mindset advisors need to work with wealthy (and oftentimes famous) individuals, wh
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Brian Belski, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss earnings season, recession fears, market sectors, PE expansion out of a bear market, small cap stocks, consumer staples, Bob Iger getting things done, Microsoft vs Google, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
By Sandy Schussel At the end of a two-hour fact-finding meeting, financial advisor Marianne told her seemingly enthusiastic prospects that she would research a few things and then create a plan for them. After that, she would schedule a follow-up appointment with them. They were a professional couple with young children. Their plan would specifically include some crucial life insurance that needed to be priced.
When it comes to passing on your wealth to your family, it is important to know the best ways to manage the process. An estimated 90% of wealthy families lose their wealth by the third generation, so if you are planning on leaving behind assets to your family, knowing the unique risks to the affluent investor and considering strategies to maintain your wealth within your family can be very beneficial. [1] However, wealth transfer is not just for the wealthy; it’s for everyone with something to l
6.5 MIN READ Admit it: Do you have a shoebox full of “important” papers that you *think* might be needed for your taxes? Do you know what’s in there? Are they in your junk drawer? The kitchen counter? The dining room table? In some online account that you don’t have the password for? Some combination of the above? We get it. “Preparing” for tax preparation can be daunting.
We’re already into 2023, which means there will be many new television series and seasons to keep us occupied in the new year. But before we all get fixated on something shiny and new, you might want to catch up on these wonderful shows. Netflix’s Dead to Me It’s no secret that streaming services are taking over, so it seems fitting that Netflix’s original series Dead to Me is at the top of the list.
This week, we speak with financial journalist William D. Cohan, who is the bestselling author of Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World, House of Cards: A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street, and The Last Tycoons: The Secret History of Lazard Frères & Co., among other books. A former Wall Street M&A investment banker for 17 years, Cohan is also a founding partner at the media company Puck.
I’d guess that upwards of half of USV’s portfolio companies have changed the name of their company during their lifetime. It is not hard to understand why. Founders start out with an idea and not much more. By the time they have built a product, built a team, and found product market fit, they might be doing something a bit different or a lot different than where they started out.
My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Inside Wall Street’s gloom-and-doom racket: If an ‘expert’ is warning you that the market is about to crash, check their math : Admittedly, stocks haven’t done well over the last year, but instead of providing clients and the general public with clear-eyed views, a new ecosystem of hackneyed, alarmist analysts is relying on low-quality data to push people away from steady investments into an alternative ecosystem of products of du
Tips, tricks, and best practices to eliminate the angst experienced by many advisors who embark on the journey of exploration. Going to the doctor. Flight delays. Strategic due diligence. What do these things have in common? People vehemently dislike all of them! Yet each are also necessary evils to get from here to there. And in the case of due diligence, it’s a process that gets your business where you want it to be.
The FT’s Gillian Tett explains that while much of this criticism has come from the American right, it’s not just conservative politicians criticising the ESG agenda
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