Sat.Aug 20, 2022 - Fri.Aug 26, 2022

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Why Are TIPS Losing Money With Inflation at 9%?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Hey guys please explain why an inflation-linked bond could have lost money this year with inflation at 9%. I’ve been getting this question a lot lately. How could bonds that have an implicit inflation kicker be down almost 7% this year? Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are one of the most peculiar assets in the investment universe.

Assets 145
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Tales from the Dark Side

The Big Picture

I had a fascinating conversation with an old friend who has been working in a giant bulge bracket firm his entire multi-decade career. What made this particular conversation so intriguing was his sudden epiphany about the Sell-side. Our previous discussions (debates really) were over the traditional model of brokerage I push back against versus the fee-based fiduciary asset management I embrace.

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Literally

The Reformed Broker

Sharing this chart from Guggenheim showing that the S&P 500’s bear market bounce literally stopped on a dime and was turned away at the 200-day moving average. It’s almost too perfect. We manage our tactical portfolio based on technically-oriented rules not because it always works (it doesn’t!) but because it eliminates feelings like fear or fear of missing out from the decision-making process.

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How to find all the clients you want

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Antoinette Tuscano You may be a genius financial advisor, but without clients, you won’t be a successful financial advisor. A dynamic marketing strategy is critical to attracting the clients you can best serve. In the following three MDRT videos, you’ll find a variety of ideas to keep your prospecting pipeline flowing and your schedule full: Gain clients through media exposure.

Prospects 103
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Why People Make Dumb Financial Decisions on Purpose

A Wealth of Common Sense

There was a question posed on Twitter this week that caused a stir among finance people: A 50% chance of winning $50 million would equate to an expected value of $25 million. Why would you take $1 million against an expected payout value of $25 million? That doesn’t make any sense. If you understand probabilities, you hit the green button. Easy right?

Financing 145
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Future Proof is Almost Here!

The Big Picture

Over the years, I have been involved in a fair share of investment conferences. This began with the Big Picture Conference at the New York Athletic Club, post-GFC. I had flipped bullish in March 2009, but I have vivid recollections that Fall of listening to Jim O’Shaughnessy of OSAM explain the history of markets following a 50+% crash. He was even more bullish than I was, and had the data to back it up.

Investing 134

More Trending

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Don’t mess with ESG in Texas

Financial Times: Moral Money

Plus, UK public spending on net zero plan under scrutiny

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Exceptions to the Rule

A Wealth of Common Sense

Ryan Detrick shared a stat last week that should put stock market investors at ease with the recent rally: Here is Ryan’s data to back this up: And the chart: This sounds pretty good to me and it makes sense intuitively. Bear market rallies are a common occurrence but not to this degree. So are we out of the woods? Maybe? The problem is that although it appears we have skirted a recession for the time being, it&#.

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Lessons From the Future

The Big Picture

When it comes to integrating data with investing insights, no one is better than Ben Carlson. I direct you to today’s “ Exceptions to the Rule, ” where Ben dives into the nitty gritty of the conflicting data between market action and inflation data: BULL : The S&P 500 has recovered half of its 2022 bear market losses. When this has occurred in the past, stocks have never moved back to new lows, and have been higher every time a year later.

Capital 131
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Twitter must give Elon Musk more data on fake users, judge rules

Financial Times M&A

Delaware court stops short of granting Tesla chief’s other ‘absurdly broad’ requests in legal fight over $44bn deal

Legal 98
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BlackRock labels Texas ‘anti-competitive’ due to ESG blacklisting

Financial Times: Moral Money

Asset manager describes decision to single it out as hostile to fossil fuels as ‘opportunistic’

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Two Predictions

A Wealth of Common Sense

I don’t make a lot of predictions because, well, predicting the future is hard. The problem with predictions is there is almost always something that comes out of left field that derails even the most informed projections. I predicted the following in March 2020: Potential real estate boom following the quarantine as ppl constantly notice all the little things about their houses they don’t like?

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • How to Beat the Stock Market Without Even Lying : Stock funds have been pulling a switcheroo to make their returns look better: When they don’t measure up, they change how they measure. ( Wall Street Journal ). • Remote Work Is Sticking : About a third of all service work and just under 10% of manufacturing work in the region was being done remotely—a huge jump from 8% and 3%, respectively, before the pandemic. ( Liberty Street Economics ) see also Pizz

Bidding 122
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Hipgnosis/Pink Floyd: Blackstone deal may leave trust uncomfortably glum

Financial Times M&A

Songs fund’s yawning discount suggests scepticism about its net asset value

Assets 98
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The carbon footprint fixation is getting out of hand

Financial Times: Moral Money

Voluntary climate initiatives may distract from what is really needed

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Animal Spirits: Price Drives Narrative

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Nasdaq and Composer: See here for daily news and insights from Nasdaq. See here for more info on Composers’ rules-based strategies On today’s show we discuss: US mortgage lenders are starting to go broke Housing slowdown starts to ease as a drop in listings hampers supply Even with sales down, home prices are up 10.8% Homebuyers are backing out of deals T.

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Cyclical Bear Within a Secular Bull

The Big Picture

Barry Ritholtz, Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman and CIO & “Masters in Business” Bloomberg Radio & Podcast Host, says he looks at the sell-off in the first half of 2022 as a “cyclical bear within a longer secular bull.” Cyclical Bear Within a Secular Bull: Ritholtz. Source: Bloomberg , August 19th, 2022. The post Cyclical Bear Within a Secular Bull appeared first on The Big Picture.

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CIMC abandons $1bn deal to acquire Maersk’s refrigerated container arm

Financial Times M&A

US Department of Justice planning to sue to block move over antitrust concerns as it cracks down on Chinese deals

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Why sustainable investors may rue going passive

Financial Times: Moral Money

Any fund manager not assessing a company’s ESG credentials is flying blind

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

It was a quiet week here at TRB as we had more than a dozen employees come in to New York from around the country to spend some time at the Mother Ship in midtown Manhattan and out here on Long Island. It’s cool to see RWM people who have never met each other in-person before solidify the relationships they’ve begun building on Slack and Zoom and Google Meet.

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Inflation Is Up Everywhere, But How Much Depends on Where You Live : The Northeast isn’t feeling the pain as much as the South or Mountain West, This could have political implications in the 2022 midterms. ( Businessweek ) see also Why the Rent Inflation Is So Damn High It’s just the latest chapter in the “everything is weird” economy. ( The Atlantic ). • The Biggest Life Event That No One Talks About : Graduation, first job, marriage, kids, divorce,

Legal 119
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The hedge fund billionaire playing activist at his former firm

Financial Times M&A

Plus, bankers and lawyers search for a way around Biden’s new buyback tax and controversial financier Lars Windhorst tells DD he’s good for the money

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Texas accuses BlackRock of energy company boycott in ESG clampdown

Financial Times: Moral Money

Ten financial groups face potential pension fund divestment after claim by US oil-producing state

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How Will You Pay for Long-Term Care in the Future?

Integrity Financial Planning

Even though you’re a long time away from needing long-term care, now is the time to plan. An estimated 70% of Americans currently age 65 will need long-term care at some point, and costs can be staggering. 14 If you have a 70% chance of needing long-term care, you should think about how you would like to receive it and how you’ll pay for it in the future.

Taxes 98
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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Hope You Enjoyed the Summer Rally : The easy money has already been made (probably). ( Businessweek ). • Powell Has Chance to Reset Market Expectations at Jackson Hole : Fed chair will speak amid high inflation, investor optimism ECB, BoE officials also set to attend annual Fed conference. ( Bloomberg ) see also The NY Fed vs Larry Summers : Some pundits were right on high inflation but for the wrong reasons. ( Financial Times ). • An overlooked indicato

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Another brick in the Wall Street as Blackstone eyes Pink Floyd catalogue

Financial Times M&A

Deal through Hipgnosis fund could value songs at as much as $500mn

Funds 98
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US fund manager under fire over sponsorship of climate sceptics

Financial Times: Moral Money

Clash between environment champion Federated Hermes and its clients highlights ESG tensions

Funds 98
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Roth Conversion by the Decades, Ep #171

Financial Symmetry

What if you could take action now so that you have significantly more tax-free savings to utilize in retirement? On this episode of Financial Symmetry, we’ll take a look at an often misunderstood tax planning opportunity. The Roth conversion is … Continued. The post Roth Conversion by the Decades, Ep #171 appeared first on Financial Symmetry, Inc.

Taxes 98
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MiB: Bill Browder on Finance, Murder and Justice

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Bill Browder, who is head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign and author of the recently released “Freezing Order: A True Story of Money Laundering, Murder and Surviving Vladimir Putin’s Wrath.” The founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, which was the investment adviser to the largest foreign investment fund in Russia until 2005, Browder is also the author of “ Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder and One Man’s Fight for Justice.

Financing 116
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Rio Tinto raises offer to take direct control of Mongolia copper mine Oyu Tolgoi

Financial Times M&A

FTSE 100 group improves bid to $3.

Bidding 98
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Back to nature: why employers are sending staff on environmental retreats

Financial Times: Moral Money

From sleeping in the woods to hugging trees, ‘experiential learning’ aims to help workers identify with company values

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Deliberately Designing a Vision for the Next 12 Months and Beyond

Elevating Your Business

Do you have a vision? Sarah Hughes, the Olympic gold medal ice skater, had hers at age six. Joseph Campbell, the folklore author, found his after visiting the Museum of History in New York City. Oprah Winfrey remembers, at age four, watching her grandmother washing clothes by boiling them—Oprah "knew" then that her life would. The post Deliberately Designing a Vision for the Next 12 Months and Beyond appeared first on Female Financial Advisor Coach.

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1962 Lincoln Continental Convertible

The Big Picture

The Lincoln Continental began life as a personal vehicle for Ford Motor Company President Edsel Ford. In 1938, Ford commissioned a one-off design from company Chief Stylist Eugene T. Bob Gregorie. In what would give the model line its name, the exterior was given European “continental” styling elements, including a rear-mounted spare tire.

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Cartier owner Richemont takes €2.7bn hit on sale of ecommerce unit

Financial Times M&A

Activists saw Yoox Net-a-Porter as an unprofitable distraction for Richemont

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