Sat.Oct 01, 2022 - Fri.Oct 07, 2022

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Will the Stock Market Fall if Earnings Fall?

A Wealth of Common Sense

One of the worst parts about any bear market is it feels like there’s always something else to worry about that hasn’t even happened yet that could make things even worse. The future risk everyone has had on their market bingo card for months and months now is a recession caused by the Fed. If we do get a recession anytime soon it will certainly be the most obvious recession in history that everyone predicted.

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Elon Musk proposes buying Twitter for originally agreed $44bn

Financial Times M&A

Tesla chief and social media company were set to take their dispute to trial later this month

Companies 145
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You weren’t supposed to see that

The Reformed Broker

I’m going to tell you a quick story in the order in which it happened. You were there. You will be familiar with the sequence of these events. But you may not have reached the shocking conclusion that I have. At least not yet. Wait for it… Our story begins in 2019… It was the best of times, it was the best of times. The tail end of a decade of uninterrupted asset price appreciation for the top decile of.

Assets 145
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Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party?

The Big Picture

One of the really strange things about watching Federal Reserve policy is the excess of deference that is given to the Fed’s judgment. While the Fed deserves credit for when they get things right – e.g., rescuing the credit system from the great financial crisis (GFC) – they also deserve plenty of blame for the multitude of sins they commit. I am not a Fed hater or part of the crew that wants to “End the Fed.

Banks 134
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Timing the Stock Market vs. Timing the Bond Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I know it’s not feasible to consistently time the stock market. But what about the bond market? It’s expected that the Fed will raise rates throughout 2022 and maybe 2023 and then cut them again in the near future (possibly before the elections). Isn’t the following strategy an easy win: buy when rates get “high”, sell when back to 0%?

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Some investors reap big rewards from bets on Musk closing Twitter deal

Financial Times M&A

Carl Icahn, Pentwater and Hindenburg Research among those that predicted the billionaire would close the deal

Investors 125

More Trending

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Populations in Riskier Geographies

The Big Picture

Great interactive from the Washington Post showing the past 50 years. During that time, millions of people have moved into Hurricane alley — the route that seasonal storms frequently take from the Caribbean up the coast. Click to see the time lapse. Source: Washington Post. The post Populations in Riskier Geographies appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Could We See Another Lost Decade in the U.S. Stock Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Last week legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller told CNBC his baseline is for U.S. stocks to go nowhere for a decade: I’m just saying we’ve had a hurricane behind us for 30 or 40 years, and it’s reversing, and I wouldn’t be surprised — in fact, it’s my central forecast — the Dow won’t be much higher in ten years than it is today.

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Brainstorm ideas for your publications

Investment Writing

Have you ever struggled to generate topics for your blog posts, white papers, and other publications? You are not alone. I have some solutions to help you brainstorm. 1. Write about your clients’ mistakes and problems. The most powerful brainstorming advice I can give you is to start “ Blogging the mistakes your clients make.” My post on this topic gives you a template for writing this kind of blog post. 2.

Prospects 117
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How much would YOU pay to avoid deposition?

Financial Times M&A

Around $54.

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7th Inning Stretch

The Big Picture

“ Are we there yet? ” is not just a line from the kids the in the back of the car. It’s a question that investors, speculators, and professional traders have been asking themselves. The tl:dr is almost. We are almost there – down ~25% this year (so far). I wouldn’t call this an orderly sell-off, but it also hasn’t been the sort of collapse associated with true crashes like the 2000 tech wreck or the subprime mortgage/derivatives crisis.

Investors 122
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Something I Was Wrong About

A Wealth of Common Sense

I’ve been wrong a lot in my life. I was wrong to think Joey Harrington and Charles Rogers were going to be the saviors for the Detroit Lions. I was wrong when I let my brother drive my 1989 Honda Accord from Michigan to Martha’s Vineyard to visit friends when I was in high school (it broke down immediately when he brought it back). I was wrong to stock up on boot-cut jeans right before the slim look was abou.

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The Fastest Drop in Home Prices Since 2009

The Reformed Broker

TONIGHT AT 5:30PM EST! Skylar Olsen joins Michael Batnick and I on a special episode of Live from The Compound! Dr. Skyler Olsen is the Chief Economist at Zillow. Previous to her current position, Skyler founded a consultancy supporting public-facing economic data program, was head of economics at a digital mortgage start-up, and spent 8 years supporting the Zillow economic research department.

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Lessons From the Badass Muscular Neurobiologist

Mr. Money Mustache

Have you ever noticed that as a whole, our society has its daily habits almost completely backwards? We’re generally so “busy” that we don’t have time to get much exercise. And then we spend countless sedentary hours sitting in our cars each week because we think that car driving saves us time. To fuel our bodies during these chaotic days, we pack ourselves with whatever convenient or tasty food we happen to crave at the moment, then add in additional snacks between meals, while watching TV, and

Education 102
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MiB: David McRaney on Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion

The Big Picture

. This week, we speak with science journalist David McRaney, who investigates the psychology of reasoning, decision-making and judgment on his blog “ You Are Not So Smart.” The blog, which he launched in 2009, spawned a bestselling book, now available in 17 languages, as well as a podcast. McRaney’s most recent book, “ How Minds Change: The Surprising Science of Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion ,” came out this year.

Investors 121
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Talk Your Book: Investing in Science Fiction

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Talk Your Book is presented by Kelly Intelligence: On today’s show, we spoke with Kevin Kelly, Founder and CEO of Kelly Intelligence about the use cases for gene editing, how biotechs perform in difficult environments, and much more. On today’s show we discuss: How Kelly Intelligence was started What CRISPR is Use cases for CRISPR The future of gene editing Incentives for gene editing How Ke.

Investing 108
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Renault chief flies to Japan for crunch talks over Nissan alliance

Financial Times M&A

Negotiations will aim to resolve intellectual property dispute and examine future of French group’s stake

Stakes 98
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Get to Know Alex Nichols

Tobias Financial

Acting plays a major part in Alex’s life and her journey toward her career. When she was younger, she wanted to pursue an acting career seriously and auditioned for a few roles in the theater at Belmont University. Growing up, Alex was very shy and for the most part kept to herself. The only place where she felt comfortable expressing her true self was the theater stage.

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Bogleheads Live

The Big Picture

Click for audio. I sat down with Jon Luskin of Bogleheads to record episode #18: We focus on the cognitive & behavioral side of investing, as well as different ways of approaching risk. The post Bogleheads Live appeared first on The Big Picture.

Investing 119
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Asset managers may regret becoming the new banks

Financial Times: Moral Money

Alphabet soup of LDI and ESG puts BlackRock and others in the financial hot seat

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Twitter ‘not taking yes for an answer’ on $44bn deal, Musk claims

Financial Times M&A

Billionaire asks judge to stop legal proceedings while he and social media company hash out how to close transaction

Legal 98
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As Fall Falls: A Market Prospective

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

As fall falls and the temperatures signal a new season, we are reminded why we love this time of year in Wisconsin. We are replacing our shorts and swim trunks with flannel shirts and hooded sweatshirts. Even though most of us have been through the Midwest seasonal pattern for decades, every season feels new and different from last year or the year before.

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Washout : If the leaders are falling, you know the rest of the bunch already got washed out. Indeed, only 8% of the Nasdaq-100 is above the 200-day moving average. ( Irrelevant Investor ) see also Getting Long-Term Bullish : My general investment philosophy is the more bearish things feel in the short run the more bullish I should be over the long run.

Banks 119
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BlackRock reshapes top team to boost firepower against critics

Financial Times: Moral Money

World’s largest asset manager has come under fire for its stakes in large companies and ESG strategy

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Naver/Poshmark: paying a first-hand price for second-hand goods

Financial Times M&A

South Korean group’s key task would be to fix the US company’s much-maligned search engine

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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BMW XM Hybrid

The Big Picture

The new BMW XM Hybrid is a lot of things: a high horsepower, very expensive, top-of-the-line SUV, that is the first hybrid from BMW Motorsports GmbH, aka “M” sports division. The specs on the Plug-in hybrid powertrain are impressive: -TwinPower Turbo, 4.4-liter V-8 engine. -644HP + 590lb-ft of torque. -0-60 mph in 4.1 seconds. -8-speed M Steptronic transmission. -194-hp electric motor. -317-volt battery pack 25.7-kWh battery pack (30 miles e-driving range).

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The global companies sucked into Russia’s draft

Financial Times: Moral Money

Plus, what the EU’s scope 3 rules mean for the auto industry

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Elon Musk surrenders to Twitter

Financial Times M&A

Plus, Arm’s troubles in the UK intensify and Ray Dalio abdicates the throne for the third time

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Should You Use a Non-Qualified Deferred-Compensation Plan for Your Retirement Savings? Ep #174

Financial Symmetry

Have you ever been offered a non-qualified deferred compensation plan as part of your benefits package? Do you know someone who has, but wasn’t sure exactly what it was? If either of these fits you, then you won’t want to … Continued. The post Should You Use a Non-Qualified Deferred-Compensation Plan for Your Retirement Savings? Ep #174 appeared first on Financial Symmetry, Inc.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

Welcome to October! The weekend is here, so pour yourself a mug of Porto Rico Import coffee, grab a seat on the sofa, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The Great Bluff: How the Ukrainians Outwitted Putin’s Army : Russia’s army was thought to be vastly superior. But Ukraine has nevertheless managed to secure an almost unbelievable coup, taking back huge swaths of territory in the northeast.

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Odey steps up bet on fracking after UK government lifts ban

Financial Times: Moral Money

Hedge fund increases stake in British company after previous scepticism of extraction method

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Twitter deal tests banks’ resolve as they brace for big losses

Financial Times M&A

Lenders’ commitment to finance Elon Musk’s buyout may cost them hundreds of millions of dollars

Buyout 98
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3 Questions You May Have About Medicare

Integrity Financial Planning

With market volatility and inflation affecting people’s finances, talk about investment strategies and portfolio longevity seems to dominate retirement planning conversations. But one of the most important aspects of retirement is often overlooked in these conversations: healthcare costs. There are many unexpected costs in retirement, but healthcare is one of the largest spending categories on average for retirees, so having a cohesive plan to cover these necessities can go a long way, regardles