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It’s now well-documented that 2022 is one of the worst years in history for financial markets. Last year was one of the worst years ever for stocks and the worst year ever for bonds. The logical next step is to look at what has happened next following the prior worst years for stocks, bonds and diversified portfolios. Past performance tells us nothing about future performance but studying market history can provide.
It may surprise you to learn that during this cycle of falling inflation, there seems to be little correlation with rising Fed Rates. This is very counter-intuitive but it makes sense when you consider what an aberrational and unusual cycle this has been. Despite zero rates for a decade plus inflation was quite benign. it was only the combination of the global pandemic and lockdown, a massive fiscal stimulus, and a surge in demand for goods that have driven the 2020 to 2022 inflation.
Happy New Year everyone! Great to be back in the saddle this week, working with our new president as we prepare for 2023 and beyond. We’ve got lots of projects and initiatives underway at Ritholtz Wealth, some of which you’ll be hearing about from me very soon. This week we went back to our regularly scheduled programming, with fresh episodes of all your favorite shows – What Are Your Thoughts, Animal Sp.
We have a handful of traditions in my family. We watch the Lions lose every year on Thanksgiving. We wear Hawaiian shirts at holiday dinners (try it…it’s fun). We get Chinese takeout for lunch every year on Christmas day. And we update my asset allocation quilt once a year when the calendar turns (OK that’s just me). Let’s do this.
This week, we speak with the legendary John Mack, former chief executive officer and chairman of the board at Morgan Stanley. He recently published a memoir of his life and 34-year tenure at Morgan Stanley, “ Up Close and All In: Life Lessons from a Wall Street Warrior.”. We discuss how he ended up on Wall Street because he needed a job when an injury ended his college football career and scholarship.
I read last week that the NYC Department of Education has banned ChatGPT from its networks and devices. I understand that reaction and mentioned the issues that AI/ML create for educators in a post a few weeks ago. I attended a dinner this past week with USV portfolio founders and one who works in education told us that ChatGPT has effectively ended the essay as a way for teachers to assess student progress.
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Callie Cox, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss discuss the latest CPI data, why Michael’s feeling a little bullish, calling the Fed’s bluff, chances of a soft landing, retail investor sentiment, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Callie Cox, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss discuss the latest CPI data, why Michael’s feeling a little bullish, calling the Fed’s bluff, chances of a soft landing, retail investor sentiment, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
I don’t like making big, bold macro predictions. There are too many unknown variables involved and even if I did nail my macro forecast, it probably wouldn’t help my portfolio anyway since the market reaction to the economic data is more important than the data itself. Last week Michael and I were on Plain English with Derek Thompson discussing the confusing nature of the current macro environment.
CPI for December 2021 came in as expected , showing a decrease in core inflation is driven primarily by falling gasoline prices. Most in the media have credited the aggressive action by the Federal Reserve in helping to lower rates of inflation, but I have a decidedly different view: Inflation has come down not because of but despite the rate-increasing regime of the Federal Reserve.
A reader asks: Should most investors reinvest their dividends – why or why not? My initial thought is while still accumulating assets yes, but when withdrawing in retirement take the dividends in cash. I have read stats that say a large percentage of compound returns come from reinventing dividends so seems like a good move and another way to dollar cost average on a smaller scale but maybe I’m missing something.
My Friday the 13th, end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • F@*$#*! 2022 was a record year for earnings call swearing : The “polycrisis” of runaway inflation, pandemics, interest rate increases, supply chain snafus and wars helped lift swearing on earnings calls and investor days to a new record high in 2022. Good job everyone. ( Financial Times Alphaville ). • Elon Musk Might Never Be the World’s Richest Person Again : It’s not just that he became the first person in history to have $200 billion
For the first time since 2018, the S&P 500, along with most other major indices had a negative return for the calendar year in 2022. Financial buzzwords like inflation and interest rates appeared constantly in the media and social media, and rightfully so with the role they played. Meanwhile, conflict abroad, unfortunately, came into the spotlight with the invasion of Ukraine, sending a global shockwave that had a large impact financially.
Life in retirement can feel a little slow and quiet, especially when you spend lots of time at home, have become an empty nester, or haven’t picked up any new hobbies. Plant parenting is a great way to fill up your time. It invests you in nurturing life, prompts you to learn new things, and engages you in routine. If you are new to it, you may be unsure of what plants to get, which ones are safe and how to properly take care of them.
On today’s show, we are joined by Rodney Comegys, Head of Vanguards Equity Investment Group to discuss index fund investing with Vanguard. See here for more information and research on investing with Vanguard On today’s show, we discuss: Rodney’s background What it’s like to work at Vanguard The back-office work involved in low-cost indexing Debunking misconceptions about indexing Price discovery and.
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Tolima Los Brasiles Peaberry coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • How Not to Play the Game : Magic beans, Bahamian penthouses, old-fashioned fraud and other important SBF-inspired insights. A postscript to Bloomberg Businessweek’s The Crypto Story. ( Businessweek ). • 99 Good News Stories You Probably Didn’t Hear About in 2022 : The world didn’t fall apart this year.
After December’s trash fire, markets are optimistic, says Ritholtz’s Josh Brown from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Closing Bell appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts: Enter your information here to get 20% off YCharts (new clients only) On today’s show, we discuss: Jeff Bezos may return to helm Amazon, says forecaster of double-digit stock market losses last year Amazon workers joke about Jeff Bezos’s comeback amid Andy Jassy layoffs The 2023 Economy FAQ: Is recession inevitable?
My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • The Fed May Finally Be Winning the War on Inflation. But at What Cost? There’s a good chance that the Fed could push the economy into recession. The pain will not be shared equally. ( New York Times ). • Something big is happening in the U.S. housing market—here’s where 27 leading research firms think it’ll take home prices in 2023.
It is a New Year and time to give your finances a personal checkup! See the list of items below that should be done at the beginning of each year: 1. Set Financial Goals or Create A Financial Plan It … Continued. The post Be Sure to Check Your Financial Vital Signs in 2023, ep #181 appeared first on Financial Symmetry, Inc.
The 2022 economic climate has been bumpy for most and, in some cases, even bumpier for retirees. Americans and the world at large dealt with the economic ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, post-pandemic industrial effects, and rising inflation and interest rates. As the year ends, it’s important to understand how these economic factors may have affected your finances as a retiree.
Updated Legislation Means More Changes That Advisors Need To Know. The SECURE Act 2.0 is significant legislation signed into law on December 20, 2022, and is expected to have several impacts on retirement income planning. It contains several provisions designed to improve Americans' retirement security, including later required minimum distributions (RMDs), 529-to-Roth rollovers, and other tax planning opportunities.
By Matt Pais, MDRT Content Specialist With no shortage of work to be done, it can be difficult to find time for life outside the office. Jonathan M. Owens, CFP, AIF , a 12-year MDRT member from Clackamas, Oregon, sets numerous boundaries to make sure that doesn’t happen. He doesn’t work before 8:30 a.m., and the reason is that he goes to the gym every morning.
By Antoinette Tuscano, MDRT Content Specialist Videos about ideas for better client communications topped the list for viewers of MDRT’s YouTube channel for videos posted in 2022. The ideas shared in these videos came from MDRT members throughout the world, yet their advice and wisdom drive to the heart of the matter for clients everywhere.
This is about as nice of an example of a vintage 1990s-era 911 Turbo as you will find — but let’s get this out of the way up front: It sold last month for an eye-popping $1,265,000. That is quite an increase from the 1994 dealer selling price of $126,360. Why does a 30-year-old Porsche command 7 figures? As best as I can tell, the combination of rarity, conditions, ultra-low miles, and options made this a bit of a one-off for collectors.
By Antoinette Tuscano, MDRT Content Specialist Why be like every other financial advisor in your area when you can be unforgettable to clients? Try one of these five creative and fun ideas to showcase your personality with flare. Get noticed, boost your referability and build relationships with clients. Delivering coffee for better online meeting attendance.
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Economist Says His Indicator That Predicted Eight US Recessions Is Wrong This Year : Cambell Harvey’s work showed link between curve inversion and growth Strong labor demand, risk avoidance support US economy now. ( Bloomberg ). • Wall Street’s sleuth of bears is growing : Stocks kicked off the new year on a positive note, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.4% last week.
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