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Unless we get a Christmas miracle, the U.S. stock market is going to finish the year with double-digit losses. If this downturn holds, it would be the 12th time in the past 95 years this has happened. So it’s relatively rare but not completely out of the range of possibilities. There’s nothing special about calendar year returns. It’s not like market cycles die on December 31st and are born again each ye.
Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).
There seems to be a lot of confusion going on today with respect to inflation, interest rates, and ongoing Federal Reserve policy. A framework for exploring this has many parts: What the Fed (obviously) knows, how it express those views through police like FOMC rates, ZIRP, QE, QT, etc. There remains the question of what the Fed is actually wrong about. 1 .
This past week we stayed at the Post Oak in Houston, one of the top ten hotels in America, supposedly 6 or 7 stars – and let me tell you, that place was opulent. More marble in one building than anywhere I’ve ever been, save for perhaps the Vatican. Billionaire hospitality guru Tilman Fertitta, the hotel’s owner, furnished this place as though he would actually live there – and he does.
I loved the first season of The White Lotus. It was the perfect pandemic show at the perfect time, allowing us to escape to an exotic locale and enjoy the quirks of some wonderfully written characters. Season two just wrapped on HBO and I enjoyed it even more than the first one. The murder mystery aspect of the show was tremendous but my finance brain couldn’t help but notice a number of money and behavioral psycho.
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? The bond market is known for being much smarter than the stock market but we don’t have to go back very far to find a time when it was wrong.
A few weeks back I sat down with Bank of America’s quantitative and equity strategist Savita Subramanian and fellow financial advisor Georgia Lee Hussey to talk about how investors can protect themselves and find opportunity in 2023. There’s definitely a cloud hanging over the year to come – we’ve never seen a steeper or faster rate hiking cycle in the last half century and a lot of trends that mad.
A few weeks back I sat down with Bank of America’s quantitative and equity strategist Savita Subramanian and fellow financial advisor Georgia Lee Hussey to talk about how investors can protect themselves and find opportunity in 2023. There’s definitely a cloud hanging over the year to come – we’ve never seen a steeper or faster rate hiking cycle in the last half century and a lot of trends that mad.
Some random thoughts about markets and investing I’ve been thinking about lately: The fear of missing out and the joy of missing out are two sides of the same coin. In bull markets, you feel like an idiot for not going all-in on the highest of high fliers. In bear markets, that FOMO quickly turns into JOMO (the joy of missing out). If nothing else, both up and down markets provide reminders that there is rarely an e.
In this week’s podcast, I chatted with Kathleen McCarthy , Global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. 1 We recorded this on November 30 th , before all the news broke on the BREIT liquidity gates. But I am very familiar with the product. RWM is a discretionary RIA, which primarily invests in stocks and bonds via ETFs, Mutual Funds, and Direct Indexing.
Going back to work after nearly 11 years was an exciting and daunting prospect. For me, it was also a career change. I was diving into a new job in a new industry armed with a freshly completed Master’s degree and an infectious enthusiasm for my newly chosen profession. My kids – ages 11, 8, and 8 (yes that’s right, twins) – went back to school this fall, and I went back to work. .
A reader asks: Collective wisdom is that over the long-term markets go up. While this may have been the case in the past, it’s the baby boomers who control the vast majority of the equity market on a generational basis, and they are in the process of selling out in mass due to financing retirement over the next decade. Is this a real cause for concern that this will trigger endless selling pressure and keep returns down.
My morning train WFH reads: • Why You Should Enable Apple’s New Security Feature in iOS 16.2 Right Now : Apple just rolled out iOS 16.2, a software update that includes a key new feature called Advanced Data Protection for iCloud. That means you can finally enable end-to-end encryption for your iCloud backups so no one but you—not even Apple—can access your iCloud data. ( New York Times ). • The FUD Behind the Crypto Collapse : Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance’s Changpeng Zhao were ostensible partn
Between record-high inflation, recession fears, and the ongoing threat of Social Security benefit cuts, many Americans are worried about their nest eggs in the current economic environment.
Behavioral finance biases can make or break your journey to building wealth. The truth at the heart of behavioral finance is the fact that we are not rational decision-makers when it comes to our money. The following five psychological and … Continued. The post Types of Behavioral Finance and How to Overcome Them appeared first on Financial Symmetry, Inc.
Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by Helios: See here to learn more about utilizing Helios’ insourced CIO and other tailored tools for advisors On today’s show, we are joined by Joe Mallen, CIO of Helios to discuss Helios’ offerings for advisors. On today’s show we discuss: What Helios does Typical Helios clientele The growth of model portfolios Insourced vs outsourced CIOs How advisors are.
Month-over-month CPI food prices from the BLS, chart by Mish. Month-Over-Month Details For November Meat, Fish, Poultry, Eggs: -0.2%, up 9 of 11 months in 2022 Cereals and Bakery:+1.1%, up 11 of 11 months in 2022 Dairy: +0.7 percent: up 11 of 11 months in 2022 Fruits and Vegetables: up 1.4%, up 9 of 11 months in 2022 Nonalcoholic Beverages: -0.3%, up 10 of 11 months in 2022 Other Food at Home: -0.1%, up 10 of 11 months in 2022 Three Major Food Categories.
The 2022 economy has broken multiple records, first, with the highest inflation rate in 40 years, and now, the highest federal reserve interest rates since 2008. [1] In efforts to curb raging inflation, the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates six times in 2022, reaching a target of 3.75% in November. [2] This rise in the cost of borrowing not only affects inflation but trickles into the decisions you make before and in retirement.
By Randy Marshall, Ph.D. Knowing the difference between a goal and a desire has saved careers and given many financial advisors a new lease on why they do what they do. Yet, many people operate with the wrong perspective because they don’t understand the huge difference between a goal and a desire. By understanding this, you as a financial advisor can increase both your productivity and inner peace.
Close your eyes and think back to your childhood. What’s the first thing you remember? Your first thoughts may be about your childhood room or your old posters and magazines. Maybe it was your living room couch that had a distinctly comfortable spring to it, even in its final years before it was tossed. It wouldn’t be surprising, however, if your favorite childhood memories were of your kitchen and the people who used it.
By Jaslyn Ng One of the most frequently asked questions I get is about how I manage my time due to my three roles as an agency leader, Court of the Table member and a mother. For me, it’s about three time management principles I strictly adhere to. These are. 1. Efficiency vs. effectiveness. Efficiency and effectiveness are not the same thing. Efficiency is the ability to accomplish something with the least amount of wasted time, money and effort for competency in performance.
8 MIN READ. No matter how long I work with fee-for-service planners, I find they dread fee increases. Especially now with inflation and the market, it can feel daunting. So let me give you friendly permission: if you are not using a percentage of assets fee structure, you need to reassess your fees every year or so. As your business grows, your firm is likely to be your biggest personal asset - or one of your most valuable assets.
Target 2 balances from the ECB, numbers and caption by Mish. TARGET2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system owned and operated by the Eurosystem. The Target2 Lead Chart is courtesy of the ECB. It shows Target 2 creditor and debtor nations. Tatget2 is one of the fundamental flaws of the Eurozone. Primary Creditors and Debtors Target2 surpluses to the tune of €1.23 trillion continue to mount in Germany.
My Two-for-Tuesday train reads: • The fall of FTX shocked everyone. Except this guy. The world of cryptocurrency is rich with eccentric characters and anonymous Twitter personalities. So perhaps it shouldn’t be a surprise that one of the early figures who called attention to the problems with Sam Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, is a 30-year-old Michigan psychiatrist who investigates financial crimes as a hobby. ( The Atlantic ). • You Bought a Hot Fund.
Dot Plot Interest Rate projections from FOMC, highlights and annotations by Mish. Please consider the FOMC Press Release from December 14. Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.
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